Articles
AN ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE DIRECTION OF INDIA'S IMPORT DURING POST-ECONOMIC REFORM PERIOD

Manoj Kumar Sinha

Volume 37, Issue 2

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The main purpose of the paper is to analyze the structural changes in India’s direction of import during new trade policy since 1991 within the framework of WTO. The period of study is 1987:88 – 2014:15. The paper used the dominance pattern, ranking technique, mobility and turnover, concentration ratio and growth rate technique as research methodology for analysis of the paper. The paper found that USA has been at the top in exporting of goods and services to India.. Top five countries are exporting to India more than one-half of India’s import. Saudi Arabia and China are Asian Countries in top five countries. China and Russia within BRICS grouping are exporting around 10 percent to India. India’s import from SAARC countries is almost negligible. However, world level concentration ratio of India import direction is low. Growth rate of concentration ratio is low, negative and statistically significant. This is favourable for India because this may be possible because India deliberately simplifying her import procedures and adding new trading partners for import at competitive price. In general, USA is top exporting country to India. India needs to diversify her import direction on bilateral basis from SAARC and other Asian, African and South American counties. This will lead to increase India absorption capacity of global shock and recession such as global financial crisis in 2008 and reduce dependence on few developed countries.

SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF IPOs IN THE POST-SEBI ERA

Garima Baluja

Volume 37, Issue 2

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The Indian primary market has seen several fluctuations in the post-SEBI era. The introduction of SEBI and abolition of CCI created ‘hot issue phenomenon’ in the market wherein several new issues entered the market, however, only a few managed to survive in the aftermarket. This paper explores the survival profile of 3125 IPOs issued during 1992-1996 using most sophisticated methodologies i.e., Logistic Regression and Survival Analysis. The models take a range of information concerning offering, market, and corporate specific characteristics of IPOs. The empirical investigation reveals that most of the IPOs entered the market in hot issue period (1992-1996) but they failed to survive longer in the market. Overall, the Kaplan-Meier estimation exhibits a significant decline in survival rate and a growth in hazard rate during the first 50-60 months of listing. The offering characteristics such as issue size, lead manager’s reputation, and IPO demand exhibit a positive influence, whereas initial returns, risk, and list delay exhibit a negative influence on the endurance of IPOs. The analysis of market specific variables and survival profile of IPOs reveals that issues in the period of high IPO activity fails to sustain longer on the exchange. The results of corporate specific variables validates that age of the company not only enhances the odds of survival of IPOs but also accelerates their survival duration in the aftermarket. The survival profile of IPOs varies across the several industries as well. The findings of this study will have fruitful implication for the issuers, investors, regulators, and the entire capital market as they can evaluate the future prospects of IPOs and can take rational decisions accordingly.

HAVE BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATIES INCREASED FDI INTO SOUTH ASIA?

Sarthak Agrawal, Tanya Sethi and Aasheerwad Dwivedi

Volume 37, Issue 2

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This paper econometrically investigates the effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into five South Asian countries. It employs an extensive panel data model to conclude that the BITs signed by Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka between 1970 and 2014 have not led to an increase in FDI--a result that is later established on theoretical grounds as well. When this conclusion is juxtaposed with compelling literature on the BIT’s deleterious impact on domestic sovereignty and independent policy space, the scope for a pareto superior outcome is envisaged; and this outcome is shown to be a Nash equilibrium using an augmented prisoners’ dilemma model with a provision for mutual cooperation.

Cyclicall Possibilities of Monopolistically Competitive Market Model

C. Saratchand

Volume 37, Issue 2

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A dynamic model of monopolistic competitive industry is set out which is based on standard textbook formulations of a linear demand function and cubic cost function. The existence of the equilibrium, local stability and comparative dynamic properties of the model are set out. The Hopf Bifurcation theorem is employed to establish the possibility of cycles in the model.