Articles
DOES FUTURES HELP IN PRICE DISCOVERY OF SPOT: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE NSE SPOT AND FUTURE INDEX OF INDIA

Rakesh Shahani and Gurpreet Khera

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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The present study is an attempt to examine the price discovery mechanism between the stock one month futures and spot(cash) market index for the NSE Nifty Index. It investigate the lead lag relation between these two set of markets by analyzing daily closing prices data for both NSE Nifty stock index & also NSE Nifty one month futures index for a period Jan 1 , 2016 to March 28 2018 (501 observations). The econometric tools applied include Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test & KPSS test of Stationarity of Variables, Johansen Co-integration test , VAR with Error Correction Mechanism test (after determining the optimal no. of lags) & BG Serial Correlation. The results of the study revealed that the spot and futures prices of NSE Nifty were co-integrated and also had significant error corrective mechanism where the speed of correction was very fast at 93 % per period moving from short run disequilibrium to long run equilibrium. The Granger cause-effect relation was however not observed even in the VAR Model as correction towards equilibrium was arrived at a very short period of time thereby contradicting the viewpoints of researchers that futures lead the spot rates in all major stock markets. The diagnostic tests confirmed that time series of spot and futures market was stationary at 1st difference and also free from serial correlation.

INFLUENCE OF BEHAVIORAL BIASES ON INVESTMENT DECISIONS

Saloni Raheja and Babli Dhiman

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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In today’s scenario, finance plays an important part in everyone’s life. In order to avoid different types of problems in life, the person should invest the money in different types of avenues. The present study concentrates on the relation between the investor behavioral biases and their investment decisions. The information was gathered from 500 investors. The investors who invest through LSC Securities ltd in Punjab were considered. The multiple regression tests were used through SPSS to test the relationship among the factors. There was a relation between the behavioral biases of the investors and their investment decisions. There was positive relation among overconfidence bias and regret bias and investment decisions. There was no relation among conservatism bias and herding bias and the investment decisions.

Comparing the Volatility of Returns in Indian and Chinese Pharmaceutical Sector

Parul Tyagi

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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The growth in Indian and Chinese economies has been attributed to major reforms in the modus operandi of the capital market of the two economies. The stock market performance of the two leading economies of Asia has been a topic of discussion globally especially after 2008. In the present research, the researcher has compared the performance and stock market volatility of Indian and Chinese Pharmaceutical Indices Returns during 2004 to 2017 i.e. thirteen years. Pharmaceutical Sector forms one of the major industries of any economy and contributes to the GDP of that economy as well. Present study uses advance econometric tools like ADF Test to study stationarity, Statistical tools to compare performance and Garch (1, 1) model to study the volatility pattern of the Pharmaceutical sector indices of the two economies. The results were calculated on E-Views 8 software.

MOVING FROM WORK-LIFE BALANCE TO WORK-LIFE NATURAL FUSION

Sakshi Tyagi, Ankur Joshi, Asha Arun and Harsh Purohit

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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Analysing the newly proposed concept of Work-Life Natural Fusion (WLNF), that brings in light the explanations from Bharat’s Ancient Scripture ‘The Bhagwad Gita’ and to evaluate the way to analyse the inter-relationship among office role, personal role and social role. Work-Life Natural Fusion can be explained as the simultaneous management of Work and Life demands while one is still at work. While a thorough review of literature to broadly understand the existing concepts and discussions with experts indicates the superiority of Work-Life Natural Fusion over the classical concept of Work-Life Balance; the researchers propose that WLNF could be analysed with the help of suitable quantitative and qualitative tools to standardize its measurement and exploring the need of the implementation of the concept. After taking into consideration the four quadrants in one's life- Work, family, Friends and Self, and a few other factors, a set of questions has been prepared to understand the saatvikta (Dharmic and good thoughts and actions), holistic perspective of employees etc. WLNF seems to be a relevant concept and could be researched further to establish if it is superior to work life balance. Adopting the concept with Bhagwad Gita is the natural guide identifying one’s calling, making greatest contribution to society on their part through their work. Can provide better alternative to Work-Life balance and make people more productive and happier. The paper proposes a novel approach to achieve effectiveness in all spheres of life. The paper also adopts a synthesis of ancient and contemporary ideas to enrich the quality of work.

PERCEIVED CONSUMER EFFECTIVENESS IN INDIAN MARKET: AN ANALYSIS

Karnika Gupta and Narendra Singh

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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This paper examined perceived consumer effectiveness, and objectively worked upon investigating levels and segments of consumers as per construct. For the same, data from 300 respondents was collected and analyzed. Principal Component Analysis suggested that construct PCE was firmly measured by the statements. Descriptive statistics investigated a moderate level of perceived consumer effectiveness among Indian consumers. Further, Cluster Analysis suggested two segments designated as effective and ineffective in this paper. Effective segment has high PCE in comparison with ineffective segment, as analyzed by inferential statistics of z-test for difference between two means. Owing to findings, the requirement of a law for “protection by consumers” is implied, and further research directions are suggested.

JANUARY ANOMALY: A MYTH OR REALITY?

Gurloveleen Kaur

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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The EMH assumes that the stock market is free from the impact of various anomalies. It is efficient and working normally, no one can earn extra profits by using the extra information and exploiting it. One of the most crucial anomaly identified by the researchers is January effect, believe that more investment and returns in the month of January and least returns in December with higher selling. The same anomaly with tax loss selling hypothesis effect was tested in the research. The study did not find the existence of this anomaly in the Indian Stock Market. Though, the seasonality was observed in the stock market but not the January anomaly effect as presumed by the researchers.

RETHINKING ECONOMICS: AN INTRODUCTION TO PLURALIST ECONOMICS

Annavajhula J.C. Bose

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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There is no single God but many Gods in Economics. It is said that there are at least 20 schools of economic thinking. Here is a nice little book of densely packed profound polythiestic writings that are an antidote to the monotheistic mainstream economics which has come under hard hitting attack, for example, by Radford (2017) which is worth reading at length as follows: “Many people are wasting far too much time talking about economists as if they study the economy. They don’t. They really and truly don’t. They live in a post-fact world…economists had been steadfastly denying fact, ignoring reality, and living in a wonderland of their own creation…Economists study economics. And economics is not the economy. It is a self-contained set of ideas, models, theories, mathematical intricacies, and axioms, that are designed to provide exciting intellectual sport for those so inclined to busy themselves with such activity.

DAY TO DAY ECONOMICS

Anju Verma

Volume 39, Issue 2 (Jul-Dec)

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Economics and its applications are considered as an arcane, prosaic and an elusive science. It involves more sophisms than any other field of study known to man. It is not just about the numbers, it is also about commerce, business, politics, psychology, history, and so much more. Taylor (2012). Economists over the years have found it very difficult to explain the basic economic principles and how and why they affect a layman. Tirole (2017) says Economics is a lens that shapes how we look at the world. Understanding it does not require expert knowledge, Intellectual curiosity is just enough to break into the world of economics. Satish Y. Deodhar has also attempted to demystify the world of economics by writing this book.

WHEN ECONOMIES JITTER, BITCOIN FLUTTERS: EVIDENCE FROM THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON BITCOIN RETURNS

Sonal Thukral, Ashima Arora and Varun Bhandari

Volume 39, Issue 1 (Jan-Jun)

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The study attempts to explore the growth rate of Bitcoin for the sample countries followed by investigation of significant macro-level variables on returns of Bitcoin by considering a panel of different countries from 2013-2016. For this purpose, the paper tries to assess the impact of economic development and financial development of the economy on the returns of Bitcoin. The study employed Panel data Regression Model encompassing the pooled, fixed effect and random effect analysis followed by Hausman Test to select the appropriate model for analysis. Subsequently, using various econometric tools different OLS assumptions were also tested. The results indicated a rising interest of investors in Bitcoins despite sufficient associated risk. Analysis revealed an inverse relationship of economic development, and financial development with Bitcoin returns. The ’spread’ displays a significant linear relationship with Bitcoin returns, hinting at an emerging speculation in the Bitcoin market. The implication of the study lies in its ability to assist the market players to estimate the prospect of future adoption and survival of Bitcoin especially for e-commerce traders that explore cost-effective and time-efficient payment methods for mainstream adoption. Further, our results also provide cues to the government and central authorities towards impending regulation of this financial innovation to contain the risk of probable derailing the global economy stability.

INDO-ASEAN MIGRATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR REMITTANCES, TRADE AND INVESTMENT

Rajeev Kumar

Volume 39, Issue 1 (Jan-Jun)

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The paper focuses upon the labor emigration from India to the ASEAN countries and its implications for Indo - ASEAN trade. India's geographical location is such that it has to remain in contact with the South- East Asian countries for trade in goods and movements of people and the facts remain that India had been in such contacts for several centuries for trade. However the history of Indian labor migration to the ASEAN region is not very old. It started during the colonial period in 19th century when the British Indian government sent many Indians to work in its plantations in South East Asia. Later many of these emigrants settled there. Presently the rate of Indo-ASEAN migration is quite high with over one third of a million of Indians migrating annually to this region. At present over three million overseas Indians are living in the entire ASEAN region. Such magnitude of the movement of Indians to this region has important implications for Indo-ASEAN trade, remittances and investment. This paper tries to highlight this connection using UNO’s bilateral migration and remittances data, Word Bank’s data on trade and investment and data from other important sources like UNCTAD, ILO, IMF and IOM.